When 50+ News Outlets Say Yes, But the Market Says No
On Polymarket, a high-stakes bet asked a simple question: “Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July 2025?”
According to the official rules, the outcome should resolve to “Yes” if Zelenskyy was photographed or filmed wearing a suit between May 22 and June 30, 2025, and if credible reporting confirms it.
By the end of June, over 50 major media outlets – including Polymarket itself – described Zelenskyy’s NATO summit outfit as a suit. Yet despite overwhelming consensus, the market remains unresolved. The dispute now centers around UMA Protocol voters, who appear to be ignoring clear resolution criteria in favor of precedent or self-interest.
Update (July 3, 2025 at 5:00PM EST): This story has also officially been picked up by Benzinga / Yahoo! Finance. In their article, they included one key statement:
“At the summit, Zelensky ditched his signature military-style sweatshirt for a black military-style black jacket, black shirt, and black pants, an outfit widely reported by several media outlets and an official Polymarket X account as a suit.
While this reporting consensus should have typically led to the resolution of the market in favor of bets that Zelensky would wear a suit, the market is in dispute.”
Update (July 1, 2025 at 4:30PM EST): In an attempt to cover their tracks, @PolymarketIntel on X updated their bio to include: “Community ran account”
Update (July 1, 2025 at 11:30AM EST): During a livestream on YouTube and X, Martin Shkreli publicly denounces Polymarket and UMA calling both a “scam.” This was said in response to a message in his chat, inquiring about his thoughts on the Zelenskyy Suit market.
Martin also said that he will be talking with his contact at Founders Fund, one of Polymarket’s main investors, and one of Martin’s main sponsors.
(Click here to watch the full unedited live stream on YouTube)
Update (July 1, 2025 at 9:33AM EST): Polymarket issued a clarification stating: “At the time of this clarification, 09:33am ET July 01, a consensus of credible reporting has not confirmed that Zelenskyy has worn a suit”
This statement disregards the overwhelming, well-documented media consensus presented in this report.
Update (June 30, 2025 at 11:25AM EST): Protos dropped a story, covering the Zelenskyy suit Polymarket dispute. In their coverage of this market, they include two key statements:
- “This market was supposed to resolve positively if Zelenskyy ‘is photographed or videotaped wearing a suit between May 22 and June 30, 2025 ET.’ This market has become extraordinarily controversial after Zelenskyy appeared at an event wearing a non-traditional suit.”
- “Yet, despite many entities, including an official Polymarket account, declaring it a suit, it still seems as though the market may resolve to claim that ‘No.”
(Check out the full article here)
Update (June 30, 2025 at 10:30AM EST): DL News released an article on the dispute. In their coverage of the recent events, they include one key statement:
“Zelenskyy appeared at the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24 wearing a black blazer, collared shirt, and suit pants. Most media outlets that reported on the event said that Zelenskyy wore a suit.”
(Check out the full article here)
Update (June 29, 2025 at 7:30PM EST): Newsweek has officially picked up this story! In their article they include two key statements:
- The first statement reads as follows: “despite international news coverage and Polymarket’s own descriptions seemingly confirming the appearance of a suit.”
- The second statement comes from Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee and a member of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party:
“Zelensky’s dress should depend on the situation, Merezhko said. ‘While the war continues, the President should somehow in his attire to emphasize that he is commander in chief,’ he said.
‘In some rare cases he might wear a suit,’ but one adjusted to nod to the military, Merezhko added.”
(Check out the full article here)
The market criteria is clear: resolution by “consensus of credible reporting” on whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy wore a suit in June 2025.
This consensus has been overwhelmingly met and is undeniable.
Multiple globally recognized media outlets have explicitly reported on, or visually confirmed, Zelenskyy wearing a suit or formal/suit-like attire during the NATO summit and associated events in June, including:
| Source | Statement |
| New York Post | “Zelensky ditches T-shirt for a suit” |
| Polymarket | “President Zelenskyy in a suit last night” |
| BBC | “Zelensky swaps military fatigues for black suit at Nato summit” |
| Kyiv Post | “The Ukrainian leader was spotted wearing a suit” |
| Reuters | “switching his typical khaki military-style tee-shirts and long-sleeved tops for more formal, but still rugged, black suit-style jackets and shirts.” |
| The World | “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the NATO summit at the Hague today, and notably was wearing a suit.” |
| New York Times | “Mr. Zelensky even wore a black suit jacket” |
| News 18 (CNN) | “Zelenskyy Ditches Combat Look At NATO, Suits Up After Trump’s Oval Office Rebuke” |
| Metro | “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky swapped his polo shirt for a suit for his meeting with Donald Trump” |
| Bild | “Now Zelenskyy counters in a suit” |
| HuffPost | “Zelensky wears a suit for the first time” |
| ANI News | “Ukrainian President Zelenskyy wore a suit to the event” |
| Hindustan Times | “Volodymyr Zelensky opted for a black suit to attend the royal dinner” |
| Times Now World | “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky swapped his green fatigues for a sleek black suit” |
| Worldcrunch | “Volodymyr Zelensky has shown up in a suit.” |
| The Sun | “Zelensky swapped his signature battlefield khakis for a slick black suit today” |
| OK! Magazine | “Volodymyr Zelenskyy Shockingly Dons Suit at NATO Summit” |
| Telegraph | “for the first time since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he has appeared at an official meeting wearing a suit.” |
| Euromaidan Press | “Zelenskyy wore a suit.” |
| Ukraine’s Official Instagram | “Zelensky put on a suit” |
| Fox News / Daily Beast | “Zelensky’s outfit qualified as a suit this time.” |
| Espreso | “Zelenskyy wears black suit for first time since full-scale invasion ahead of Trump meeting” |
| Republic World | “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in a formal black suit for the NATO dinner” |
| Mashable India | “Zelenskyy Gets Internet’s Attention After Wearing A Suit To NATO Summit” |
| Firstpost | “Several photos and videos of the Ukrainian president wearing the suit quickly went viral online” |
| Maeil Business Newspaper | “President Zelensky, who showed off his suit for the first time since the outbreak of the war” |
| Censor.NET | “Zelenskyy appeared at the official event in a classic suit.” |
| Free Press Journal | “Zelenskyy ‘Finally Wears Suit‘ At NATO Summit” |
| EA Daily | “Vladimir Zelensky, came to a meeting with US President Donald Trump at the NATO summit in The Hague in a suit” |
| Revue Conflits | “This time, the Ukrainian president wore a black suit. It was the first time since February 2022 that he had appeared in this way.” |
| News.Az | “Zelensky swaps military fatigues for black suit at Nato summit” |
| The Daily Jagran | “In a rare sartorial shift, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared in a formal black suit” |
| MEAWW | “Zelensky sparks meme fest for ditching combat gear for suit at royal dinner” |
| Gazeta Express | “Zelensky swaps military uniform for black suit at NATO summit” |
| Interia Wydarzenia | “During the summit in The Hague, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky surprised with his style, wearing an elegant suit” |
| Polskie Radio | “Although the leader of the country defending itself against Russian aggression usually appears in a sweatshirt or sweater with the Ukrainian emblem, this time he decided to wear an elegant suit. “ |
| Pro TV | “The surprise of the evening was Volodymyr Zelensky, who appeared in a black suit – for the first time since the beginning of the war.” |
| Truwire | “Zelenskyy spotted wearing somewhat of a SUIT at the national summit in the Netherlands.” |
| Breaking911 | “Zelenskyy spotted wearing a SUIT” |
| Ukranian News | “Zelenskyy appears in public in suit for first time since start of war” |
| RBC Ukraine | “Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared in public wearing a classic suit.” |
| New Voice | “Volodymyr Zelensky’s outfit looks almost like a classic suit” |
| 24 Show | “Volodymyr Zelenskyy wore a black button-down blazer with pockets, matching pants and a shirt. It is worth noting that all of the items together look like a suit.” |
| The Irrawaddy | “Zelensky wears a classic suit for the first time since 2022” |
| Times Now | “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made headlines at the NATO Summit’s royal dinner in the Netherlands by appearing in a tailored black suit.” |
| The Counteroffensive | “Zelenskyy arrives at the NATO summit, wearing a suit.” |
| Ukrinform | “A few pieces do show photos of Volodymyr Zelensky wearing a suit, but only in the context of reporting on the events of the NATO summit.” |
| Al Bawaba | “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently went viral on social media after cameras captured him at the 2025 Hague Summit wearing a sleek black suit” |
| The Patriot Oasis | “Zelensky actually wore a SUIT this time in a public outing” |
| The Sprinter Observer | “Ukrainian President Zelensky attended the NATO summit in a suit.” |
| Business Basics | “Zelensky wore a suit.” |
Ask yourself: is this consensus of credible reporting?
Not to mention, professionals with direct insight, such as Ben Shapiro (when discussing the NATO appearance in June 2025) and prominent menswear writer Derek Guy (when discussing an appearance in Germany in May 2025), have publicly identified the outfit as a suit. Even direct sources like Zelenskyy himself (via a Sky News interview at 31:01) and his suit designer (via Instagram Stories) have spoken to his changed attire in a manner consistent with it being a suit.
Those who have voted “P4 – Too Early” or “No” are doing so by incorrectly applying a precedent from a previous month’s vote. That prior instance lacked any widespread media consensus. This market’s explicit criteria, however, mandates resolution based on current media consensus, which is overwhelmingly present.
The oracle’s role is to apply the specific rules of this market to the verifiable facts, not to maintain a subjective consistency with past rulings that do not align with current, clear conditions.
Zelenskyy’s outfit fundamentally fits the dictionary definition of a suit, and the media has widely confirmed it as such: “a set of outer clothes made of the same fabric and designed to be worn together, typically consisting of a jacket and trousers or a jacket and skirt.”
What Should Polymarket Do?
ChatGPT’s Analysis: Resolve to “Yes” | Gemini’s Analysis: Resolve to “Yes” | Claude’s Analysis: Resolve to “Yes”
Option A: Resolve the Market to “Yes”
The market resolves that Zelenskyy did wear a suit between May 22 and June 30, 2025.
Pros:
- Aligns precisely with the market criteria: there is overwhelming consensus in credible reporting referring to the outfit as a suit.
- Preserves integrity of rule-based markets – current events must be judged on current facts, not past resolutions.
- Validates the approach of users who trusted the rules, especially new participants.
Cons:
- Contradicts the May market’s resolution, which involved a visually similar outfit.
- May anger those who used the May outcome as a precedent to bet “No” this month.
- Might cause confusion among users expecting subjective consistency across markets.
Option B: Resolve the Market to “No”
The market resolves that Zelenskyy did not wear a suit between May 22 and June 30, 2025.
Pros:
- Maintains consistency with the May 2025 market, which resolved “No” despite a similar outfit.
- Aligns with the majority market sentiment at time of closing (i.e., heavily “No” biased odds).
Cons:
- Ignores the explicit market criteria, which require a media consensus – clearly present in June.
- Risks Polymarket and UMA being seen as ignoring facts and contradicting their own public posts referring to Zelenskyy’s outfit as a suit (Polymarket’s Post | UMA’s Post).
- Undermines trust from new or casual users, especially those betting based on the stated rules.
Option C: Resolve the Market to “Unknown” (50/50 Payout)
The market is deemed too ambiguous or controversial to resolve clearly; all participants receive half-value.
Pros:
- May feel like a fair middle ground for such a polarizing issue.
- Acknowledges the confusion and lack of trust created by inconsistent perceptions of Zelenskyy’s attire.
Cons:
- Directly contradicts public guidance from UMA leadership (e.g., Hart Lambur stated there’s no precedent or basis for a P3/Unknown outcome).
- Undermines the resolution criteria which are unambiguous and seemingly met.
- Sets a risky precedent: that controversy, not facts, can nullify a market.
Option D: Issue a Refund
Polymarket cancels the market and returns all funds to participants.
Pros:
- Avoids a contentious decision altogether.
- Has precedent in previous Polymarket controversies.
- May be seen as an attempt to preserve platform goodwill.
Cons:
- Rare and usually a last resort – not ideal for a market with clear rules and factual reporting.
- Doesn’t establish confidence in rule-based resolution.
- Frustrates both sides: neither is validated, and the outcome is erased.
Additional Micro Updates
- July 3, 2025: DL News released a follow-up article about greater underlying concerns brought to light by the Zelenskyy Polymarket Dispute. Check it out here.
- July 3, 2025: Protos also released a follow-up article about the Zelenskyy suit market. Check it out here.
- July 3, 2025: Laura Shin, a well-known crypto journalist, interviewed Calvin Hamilton live on X about the Zelenskyy Suit Polymarket Dispute.
- July 3, 2025: The Defiant wrote an article about this market. Check it out here.
- July 3, 2025: Polynoob created an article about this market. Check it out here.
- July 1, 2025: Molly White, a prominent crypto journalist, briefly covered this story on her X and in her newsletter.
- July 1, 2025: Polymarket has officially rejected the feedback post, proposing that they create a Markets Integrity team, which received 600+ upvotes: https://feedback.polymarket.com/p/proposal-create-a-markets-integrity-team
- July 1, 2025: Polymarket has officially rejected the feedback post, suggesting that they reevaluate their decision on the Zelenskyy suit market, which received 800+ upvotes: https://feedback.polymarket.com/en/p/uma-manipulating-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july
- July 1, 2025: Polymarket has officially rejected the original feedback post that was submitted and received over 900 upvotes: https://feedback.polymarket.com/en/p/uma-trying-to-scam-a-market-zelensky-wore-a-suit
- June 30, 2025: HuffPost (Spanish) released an article covering the Zelenskyy Suit Polymarket dispute. Check it out here.
- June 30, 2025: The Protos article was picked up by Bitcoin Ethereum News. Check it out here.
- June 30, 2025: The DL News article was picked up by BitRss. Check it out here.
Problems With Using UMA for Resolutions
Let’s be clear: the issues with the “Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?” market on Polymarket are 99.9% the fault of the Polymarket team. It should have been their responsibility to:
- write rules that included a clear definition of what a “suit” is considered
- issue clarification statements early, informing bettors of any potential miscommunication
With that said, this market does not seem to be the result of some kind of market manipulation/a group of “whales” intentionally voting for something that they know to be untrue. Any statements implying this do not take into full consideration all of the nuances at play.
However, this is not to say that UMA, the protocol used for resolving Polymarket’s markets, is perfect. As such, understanding how UMA operates is imperative.
People who own and stake their UMA tokens can vote on the outcomes of various markets. If you vote for the outcome that ends up winning the majority, you receive a small reward. If you vote for an outcome that loses, you may get penalized, losing some of your staked tokens.
In other words: you are incentivized to vote with the majority, and disincentivized to vote with the minority (even if you believe that to be the truth).
The problem lies in the fact that UMA does not value the number of unique voters, which would theoretically make the system more democratic. Instead, they primarily rely on the total number of tokens staked. As a result, if you are a “whale” (someone who owns and stakes hundreds of thousands to millions of UMA tokens), you can basically control the market.
This makes it so that when one or two UMA whales vote on a specific outcome, no one will want to vote against them for fear of losing their UMA tokens.
Here is evidence of this playing out:
Note: There is even more evidence than what is being shown above. However, a lot of this evidence is from private messages being exchanged on Discord. These messages cannot be shown publicly (given the risk of exposing our sources), and instead, are being shared directly with journalists.
Again, just to be very clear: this is not to say that UMA is a “market manipulator.” The issues exposed by this market are issues that should be the responsibility of Polymarket to solve, as they are the ones responsible for:
- writing rules that include a clear definition of what a “suit” is considered
- issuing clarification statements early, informing bettors of any potential miscommunication
- upholding general market integrity
What can YOU do to help?
The integrity of decentralized markets depends on adherence to clear, objective rules – not subjective interpretation or precedent bias. UMA and Polymarket must resolve markets based on the stated criteria, not shifting standards.
- Interact with the post that led you to this document.
- If you’re able to, cast your vote via UMA Protocol. You can use the copy and paste response below for evidence.
| This market is governed by a clear resolution criterion: “Consensus of credible reporting.” That means that your personal opinion on whether Zelenskyy’s outfit qualifies as a “suit” is irrelevant and that the May market resolution is also irrelevant (that market lacked widespread reporting; this one does not). As UMA voters, our job is not to impose subjective standards or force consistency with prior votes. Our job is to apply the stated criteria to the facts. In this case, there is overwhelming credible reporting describing Zelenskyy as wearing a suit: BBC: “Zelensky swaps military fatigues for black suit at NATO summit” New York Post: “Zelensky ditches T-shirt for a suit” HuffPost: “Zelensky wears a suit for the first time” Kyiv Post: “The Ukrainian leader was spotted wearing a suit” Not to mention dozens of other outlets – including Polymarket’s own account – have described the outfit as a suit. All evidence has been compiled into the report below: Polymarket: Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? This is the exact condition the market laid out. To ignore this evidence because of crowd sentiment or past inconsistencies would directly violate the resolution rules. |
- Like and retweet this post on X (a community statement to Polymarket and UMA): https://x.com/defipolice_/status/1940505455455072604
- Like and retweet this thread on X (showing consensus of credible reporting): https://x.com/rezy_io/status/1939671546370359805
- Like and retweet this post on X (showing Martin Shkreli denounce Polymarket and UMA): https://x.com/rezy_io/status/1940082664230592977
- Contact relevant journalists and news sources, talking about this market. Share this document with them.
If you’ve been affected by this dispute, are collecting evidence, or want to support efforts toward legal and procedural accountability, join the PolyWhale Repellers Discord: https://discord.com/invite/BGkPBmcy
This report was created by Calvin Hamilton (rezy on Polymarket).
Discord: rezy.io
